Wednesday, February 02, 2005

Bad Beat

I normally don't post bad beats, but this one was just ridiculous.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3h, 2h.
6 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB raises, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 2d, 2c, 7h (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, CO calls, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 8d (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls.

River: (14.50 BB) Js (3 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 18.50 BB

Results below:
Hero has 3h 2h (three of a kind, twos).
BB has 9h Th (straight, jack high).
CO has Qd Ad (one pair, twos).
Outcome: BB wins 18.50 BB.

So let's do some math. On the flop:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=746046
pokenum -h 3h 2h - 9h th -- 2d 2c 7h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 2c 2d 7h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
3h 2h 923 93.23 64 6.46 3 0.30 0.934
Th 9h 64 6.46 923 93.23 3 0.30 0.066

I had 93% equity. He would win 6.6% of the time... he had to go runner, runner to beat me. Unbelievable!!

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