Worst Poker Article Ever

Spotted this linked on twoplustwo. This is the worst article on poker ever written. I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to find the fallacies and logic holes in his reasoning.

Low Content

This hand post isn't to discuss strategy. Just to celebrate the largest pot I've taken down so far at 20/40. By the way, wtf was UTG thinking?

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2d, 2s.
UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, 5 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 2c, Qh, 3d (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 raises, Button folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) 3c (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, Hero calls.

River: (16.75 BB) 7c (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 18.75 BB

Results below:
Hero has 2d 2s (full house, twos full of threes).
UTG has Kh Qc (two pair, queens and threes).
UTG+1 has Jc Qs (two pair, queens and threes).
Outcome: Hero wins 18.75 BB.

And the boats keep coming. Here's an example of implied odds preflop.

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5s, 5d.
3 folds, MP1 raises, 4 folds, Hero calls, BB 3-bets, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) Ad, 5c, As (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, MP1 folds, Hero raises, BB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) Tc (2 players)
Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (8.50 BB) 2h (2 players)
Hero bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 10.50 BB

Results below:
Hero has 5s 5d (full house, fives full of aces).
BB has Th 8d (two pair, aces and tens).
Outcome: Hero wins 10.50 BB.

Last one:
Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Js, As. MP3 posts a blind of $20.
1 fold, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 7s, Ks, Ts (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, CO raises, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG+2 folds, CO caps, Button folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.75 BB) 8c (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises, CO calls.

River: (14.75 BB) 3c (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Final Pot: 16.75 BB

Results below:
Hero has Js As (flush, ace high).
CO has 3s 9s (flush, king high).
Outcome: Hero wins 16.75 BB.

Unfortunately the variance is really messy and at the moment I'm down. Steadily making it back though.

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Jh, Ah.
1 fold, MP1 raises, Hero calls, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 2h, Th, 8h (4 players)
BB bets, MP1 calls, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, BB folds, MP1 folds, Hero caps, CO calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) 9s (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

River: (11.25 BB) Qs (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises, CO calls.

Final Pot: 15.25 BB

Results below:
Hero has Jh Ah (flush, ace high).
CO has Td Qd (two pair, queens and tens).
Outcome: Hero wins 15.25 BB.

The aggression that everyone displays is great for your powerhouse hands, but is very difficult to play against when you hold marginal hands.

Good Flop Raise?

I'm right now 1-tabling $10/$20 on Empire Poker, practicing for the WSOP side games I'll be playing this weekend in Las Vegas.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with As, Ah. CO posts a blind of $10.
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 raises, 4 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) Td, Qh, Kh (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls.

The flop raise is the most interesting bit, I think. My opponent has a PFR of 13% over 60 hands. Let's say he raises pf with QT, QJ, KT, KJ, KQ, AT, AJ, AQ, AK, 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA.

QT = 3x3 = 9 / behind
QJ = 3x4 = 12 / ahead
KT = 3x3 = 9 / behind
KJ = 3x4 = 12 / ahead
KQ = 3x3 = 9 / behind
AT = 2x3 = 6 / behind
AJ = 2x4 = 8 / behind
AQ = 2x3 = 6 / ahead
AK = 2x3 = 6 / ahead
99 = 4c2 = 6 / ahead
TT = 3c2 = 3 / behind
JJ = 4c2 = 6 / ahead
QQ = 3c2 = 3 / behind
KK = 3c2 = 3 / behind
AA = 2c2 = 1 / tied

I am behind 49 hands. I am ahead of 48 hands. I am tied with one hand.

That's interesting. With the wide range of hands he might be raising here, it's almost even money that he's beat me, him with the slightest edge.

If I tighten him up to my EP opening standards for a tight aggressive game, say KQ, AJ, AQ, AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, then I am behind 26 hands and ahead of 18 hands, tied with 1. If I make him looser than the above by adding one more hand:

JT = 4x3 = 12 / ahead

Suddenly I behind 49 hands but ahead of 60. This shows how important reads are on an opponent. The more you know about your opponents, the better decisions you can make. I mean, I am completely guessing on the mix of hands he would play this way. If he raised suited connectors or some small pocket pairs, that would affect these results tremendously. Against a tight player, should I simply call here and assume I'm drawing? This is a marginal situation, confounded by the fact that I simply can't fold in a large pot.

This raise depends on a lot of factors. If he has two pair, it is likely that he will 3-bet me on this flop. Pairing the board to possibly give me a better two pair is difficult because I won't know if he's hit a full-house or what.

But getting the raise in here is important, even if it opens me up to being 3-bet. I want to protect my hand against the player behind me who could be drawing very live. There is enough chance that I am ahead here, and the pot is big enough that it makes up for those times when I am wrong.

I wonder if Ciaffone would tell me to just call here, or fold. But I think that, though close, you have to raise here on the flop. The rest of the play below is standard.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 2h (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls.

River: (9.75 BB) 6s (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls.

Final Pot: 11.75 BB

Results below:
UTG+2 has Js Jh (one pair, jacks).
Hero has As Ah (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Hero wins 11.75 BB.

Standard.

The play here is standard. Do you see why?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Kh, Ad.
2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, MP1 calls, Hero caps, CO calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (13.33 SB) 8d, 9d, Ah (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO raises, MP1 folds, Hero 3-bets, CO calls.

Turn: (9.66 BB) Ts (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

River: (11.66 BB) 3s (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Final Pot: 13.66 BB

Results below:
Hero has Kh Ad (one pair, aces).
CO has Qs As (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Hero wins 13.66 BB.