Good Flop Raise?

I'm right now 1-tabling $10/$20 on Empire Poker, practicing for the WSOP side games I'll be playing this weekend in Las Vegas.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with As, Ah. CO posts a blind of $10.
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 raises, 4 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) Td, Qh, Kh (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls.

The flop raise is the most interesting bit, I think. My opponent has a PFR of 13% over 60 hands. Let's say he raises pf with QT, QJ, KT, KJ, KQ, AT, AJ, AQ, AK, 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA.

QT = 3x3 = 9 / behind
QJ = 3x4 = 12 / ahead
KT = 3x3 = 9 / behind
KJ = 3x4 = 12 / ahead
KQ = 3x3 = 9 / behind
AT = 2x3 = 6 / behind
AJ = 2x4 = 8 / behind
AQ = 2x3 = 6 / ahead
AK = 2x3 = 6 / ahead
99 = 4c2 = 6 / ahead
TT = 3c2 = 3 / behind
JJ = 4c2 = 6 / ahead
QQ = 3c2 = 3 / behind
KK = 3c2 = 3 / behind
AA = 2c2 = 1 / tied

I am behind 49 hands. I am ahead of 48 hands. I am tied with one hand.

That's interesting. With the wide range of hands he might be raising here, it's almost even money that he's beat me, him with the slightest edge.

If I tighten him up to my EP opening standards for a tight aggressive game, say KQ, AJ, AQ, AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, then I am behind 26 hands and ahead of 18 hands, tied with 1. If I make him looser than the above by adding one more hand:

JT = 4x3 = 12 / ahead

Suddenly I behind 49 hands but ahead of 60. This shows how important reads are on an opponent. The more you know about your opponents, the better decisions you can make. I mean, I am completely guessing on the mix of hands he would play this way. If he raised suited connectors or some small pocket pairs, that would affect these results tremendously. Against a tight player, should I simply call here and assume I'm drawing? This is a marginal situation, confounded by the fact that I simply can't fold in a large pot.

This raise depends on a lot of factors. If he has two pair, it is likely that he will 3-bet me on this flop. Pairing the board to possibly give me a better two pair is difficult because I won't know if he's hit a full-house or what.

But getting the raise in here is important, even if it opens me up to being 3-bet. I want to protect my hand against the player behind me who could be drawing very live. There is enough chance that I am ahead here, and the pot is big enough that it makes up for those times when I am wrong.

I wonder if Ciaffone would tell me to just call here, or fold. But I think that, though close, you have to raise here on the flop. The rest of the play below is standard.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 2h (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls.

River: (9.75 BB) 6s (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls.

Final Pot: 11.75 BB

Results below:
UTG+2 has Js Jh (one pair, jacks).
Hero has As Ah (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Hero wins 11.75 BB.

Standard.

The play here is standard. Do you see why?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Kh, Ad.
2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, MP1 calls, Hero caps, CO calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (13.33 SB) 8d, 9d, Ah (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO raises, MP1 folds, Hero 3-bets, CO calls.

Turn: (9.66 BB) Ts (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

River: (11.66 BB) 3s (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Final Pot: 13.66 BB

Results below:
Hero has Kh Ad (one pair, aces).
CO has Qs As (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Hero wins 13.66 BB.

Position, Position, Position

Here's a hand where I think my position won it for me. Being able to see what everyone does before you is a huge advantage.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4s, As.
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 3d, 8d, Ad (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) Jd (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets, MP2 folds.

Final Pot: 5.50 BB

Results below:
No showdown. Hero wins 5.50 BB.

One Of Those Calls

This is one of those calls where the results make me look either like an idiot or a genius. But what do you do when people think you're stealing? Stop'n'go the turn? Push the flop?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (6 handed) converter

MP (t640)
CO (t2075)
Button (t1754)
SB (t1346)
Hero (t1030)
UTG (t1155)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Qs, 5d.
1 fold, MP calls t30, 3 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (t75) Qd, 3c, 6s (2 players)
Hero bets t40, MP raises to t120, Hero calls t80.

Turn: (t315) 8c (2 players)
Hero checks, Bigchuter is all-in for t490, Hero calls t490.

River: (t805) 5h (2 players)

Final Pot: t805

Results below:
MP has 7c 6c (one pair, sixes).
Hero has Qs 5d (two pair, queens and fives).
Outcome: Hero wins t805.

Eastbay's SNG Analyzer

http://sitngo-analyzer.com/

A Bit More Aggresive River Than Usual

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Ks, As. UTG+2 posts a blind of $4.
2 folds, UTG+2 (poster) checks, 3 folds, CO raises, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, UTG+2 folds, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10.66 SB) 7d, 5c, Ac (3 players)
Hero bets, CO calls, Button folds.

Turn: (6.33 BB) 4h (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises, CO calls.

River: (10.33 BB) Ah (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, CO calls.

Final Pot: 16.33 BB

Results below:
Hero has Ks As (three of a kind, aces).
CO has Ad Qd (three of a kind, aces).
Outcome: Hero wins 16.33 BB.

Cap for value?

Here's a fun hand where I raised preflop then got to cap every street for value.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Kc, Jc.
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (14.33 SB) Qh, Ac, Ts (4 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, Button raises, UTG+2 folds, Hero 3-bets, MP3 calls, Button caps, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (13.16 BB) 2h (3 players)
Hero bets, MP3 calls, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, MP3 calls, Button caps, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

River: (25.16 BB) 7h (3 players)

Final Pot: 25.16 BB

Results below:
Hero has Kc Jc (straight, ace high).
MP3 has 2s Ah (two pair, aces and twos).
Button has Qs Qd (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: Hero wins 25.16 BB.

Genius or Accidental Value Bet?

In limit poker, I'm fairly sure the correct move on the river is to check and call. In no-limit, I'm not exactly sure. I can't explain why I bet 300 chips, because it feels like a bet that will only get called when beaten. But at the moment, for some reason I felt like that was a fair value bet. Consider the way he called all those bets throughout the hand.

I don't know. Either it's genius or I was lucky to find someone dumb enough to call that bet.

Anyway the deck is hitting me in the face right now. I can't seem to lose a hand and I'm knocking people out left right and centre.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (7 handed) converter

Hero (t1510)
MP1 (t1840)
MP2 (t700)
CO (t1150)
Button (t1375)
SB (t740)
BB (t685)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with As, Ad.
Hero raises to t90, 2 folds, CO calls t90, 3 folds.

Flop: (t225) Jc, 7d, 6h (2 players)
Hero bets t90, CO raises to t180, Hero calls t90.

Turn: (t585) 4c (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets t125, Hero raises to t250, CO calls t125.

River: (t1085) Jd (2 players)
Hero bets t300, CO calls t300.

Final Pot: t1685

Results below:
Hero has As Ad (two pair, aces and jacks).
CO has Qh Ah (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: Hero wins t1685.

Not a Bad First Hand...

No real content to this, just that I'm playing in a sub-qualifier to try to get into the WSOP. This wasn't a bad first hand.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter

MP2 (t800)
Hero (t800)
CO (t800)
Button (t800)
SB (t800)
BB (t800)
UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t800)
UTG+2 (t800)
MP1 (t800)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9d, 9s.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t15, UTG+2 calls t15, MP1 raises to t30, 1 fold, Hero calls t30, 3 folds, BB calls t15, UTG+1 calls t15, UTG+2 calls t15.

Flop: (t157.50) Ad, 9h, Qh (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets t50, Hero raises to t150, BB folds, UTG+1 calls t150, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls t100.

Turn: (t607.50) 9c (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets t200, Hero calls t200, UTG+1 calls t200.

River: (t1207.50) Js (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero is all-in for t420, UTG+1 folds, UTG+1 calls all-in t420.

Final Pot: t1207.50

Results below:
UTG+1 doesn't show.
MP1 has Ks As (two pair, aces and nines).
Hero has 9d 9s (four of a kind, nines).
Outcome: Hero wins t1207.50.

Weird KK Hand

This hand was kind of strange. I called on the flop in case MP3 was betting a draw vs. the pot size. I think this wasn't a reverse implied odds situation because I would easily fold on the turn if a flush card came down. I think the flop may be the most controversial street. The rest looks fine to me.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with Ks, Kc. UTG+1 posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls, UTG+1 (poster) checks, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 6h, Ts, Ah (6 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 bets, CO calls, Button folds, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 2d (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks.

River: (9 BB) Jd (5 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds.

Final Pot: 11 BB

Bad River Raise

Here is an example of a terrible river raise. It's the kind that will get called by many better hands and few worse hands. Calling in this spot would have been much better. I think the hand was played fine until the river decision.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9s, 7s.
4 folds, MP3 raises, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 8s, Th, 8c (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) Qs (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets, SB calls, Hero calls.

River: (7.50 BB) Jh (3 players)
SB bets, Hero raises...

Limping With Aces??

After going on a 30 BB or so losing streak at 3/6, I caught myself slowplaying aces. At 3/6. I can't see a bigger indicator of tilt. I closed all four PartyPoker windows immediately.

Short-stack Strategy in Action

I was trying out Ed Miller's excellent short stack strategy for no-limit cash games, as presented in his fantastic book, Getting Started In Hold'em. I played about 1,000 hands over four tables, mostly at the Party $400 max games.

I have to say one thing about the strategy. Although it works, it is exceptionally boring. My VP$IP was hovering around 7%, meaning that I voluntarily put money in the pot preflop 7% of the time. That's a lot of folding. In comparison, my VP$IP for playing 3/6 limit at Party is around 15.6%.

The thing I was shocked was how often I was called by worse hands. I would sit there folding every hand for half an hour, then raise. And some people still called despite my exceptional tightness.

Here's a hand I played:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $400 max (10 handed) converter

UTG+1 ($372)
UTG+2 ($207)
MP1 ($102)
MP2 ($370)
Hero ($44)
CO ($645.7)
Button ($450.7)
SB ($656)
BB ($234)
UTG ($193.5)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with As, Ac.
UTG calls $4, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls $4, MP1 calls $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $15, 2 folds, SB calls $13, 1 fold, UTG calls $11, UTG+2 calls $11, MP1 calls $11.

In hindsight, I raised too little. The pot is already $18 by the time it's my turn, and I really should raise to at least $20-$25. But since that amount commits me, I should just push all-in. With that many limpers, someone will bite.

Either way, although not played optimally, pocket rockets are actually strong enough to be "slowplayed" by raising 4x BB...

Flop: ($79) 2c, Th, 9c (5 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $4, UTG+2 calls $4, MP1 calls $4, Hero raises all-in to $29, SB calls $29, UTG folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds.

No-brainer flop bet.

Turn: ($120) 9s (2 players)

River: ($120) 9h (2 players)

Final Pot: $120

Results below:
SB has Jh Kd (three of a kind, nines).
Hero has As Ac (full house, nines full of aces).
Outcome: Hero wins $120.

After a terrible pre-flop call, the flop call seems somewhat reasonable. This was a pretty example of the Fundamental Theorem of Poker in action. Against the range of hands I play here, he has 4-7 clean outs, twice. He is getting pot odds of 4.8 to 1, which looks fine for 7 outs twice. Happily, he only had four clean outs and therefore made a mistake according to the Fundamental Theorem.