Bursting The Bubble

I found this great post by fnord in the forums:

I think there are two huge mistakes people make in general after the money in tournies. The first is feeling too much stack pressure, which is what happend to you. There is sense of urgency when you get a short stack, but you must refrain from yielding to it. Here you say you hope he is on a complete steal. You would have to have incredible luck to be more than a 60/40 favorite here even if he is on a naked steal. In fact one of your better case scenarios is that you are a slight dog to an underpair. You CAN come back from short stacks, but you need to pick your spots well and get lucky. You are much better off waiting until you can be first in with the raise. You will have 3BB after the blinds pass you, be patient.

The other huge mistake people make after the bubble bursts is gambling FAR FAR too much. I am amazed at how fast poeple start dropping post bubble. There is a huge collective sigh of relief and most with a short to medium stack seem to think "I need to gamble and get lucky to have a shot at the big money." Again, this impatience costs them a lot. This is the time you should be thinking "People are acting crazy, I can find some nice spots where I have a big edge and pick up some much needed chips." The bonus is that while you are waiting for your good spots, you are moving up in money faster than you are being blinded off.

Certainly, you need to find a spot soon, but if you pick up the blinds with a push, you are right back to where you were before this hand. If you double after paying the blinds, you are considerably ahead of where you started this hand.

If you are dead set on making your stand here, a stop and go is better than a push IMO, but again, folding here is far better.

Also note, I know it is not easy to be patient when you have 3BB left. I have come back from very short stacks in several tournaments, and I would still feel tremendous pressure to push here, even though I know it is not the right play. It's like a survival instinct, your back is against the wall, and you just want to fight and gain closure. You just have to resist it and find a spot where you have greater folding equity and/or greater hand equity.